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Monday, September 8th, 2008
McCain 54%, Obama 44%
This according to a USA Today polling of Likely Voters, released yesterday.
Now, this isn't the time for the McCainiacs to celebrate, nor the Obamians to panic.
Why?
Because Bush led Kerry in the same week of polling 4 years ago by a margin of 54-38, and we all know he won that election by the skin of his teeth. This thing is far from settled. Not to mention, there is still some post-convention bump built in to that polling.
One comfort for the GOP is that Bush got his lunch handed to him in 2 of the 3 debates, which accounts for the loss of his lead. I expect McCain to perform much better against Obama than Bush vs. Kerry.
The polling reveals for the first time McCain is in front. We should see some state polling this week to indicate how this difference might play out in IA, PA, MI, OH, NM, CO, NV, NH, and VA.
Why is McCain/Palin winning right now? I think the answer is because they have the edge on "we hate Republican (and governmental) corruption more than you do." That's what this election is all about. If Obama can turn the tide in that department, he can still win this thing handily.
Reminders: Obama on O'Reilly the next 3 nights, and Palin to talk to Charlie Gibson later this week (date has not been released?)
McCain 54%, Obama 44%
This according to a USA Today polling of Likely Voters, released yesterday.
Now, this isn't the time for the McCainiacs to celebrate, nor the Obamians to panic.
Why?
Because Bush led Kerry in the same week of polling 4 years ago by a margin of 54-38, and we all know he won that election by the skin of his teeth. This thing is far from settled. Not to mention, there is still some post-convention bump built in to that polling.
One comfort for the GOP is that Bush got his lunch handed to him in 2 of the 3 debates, which accounts for the loss of his lead. I expect McCain to perform much better against Obama than Bush vs. Kerry.
The polling reveals for the first time McCain is in front. We should see some state polling this week to indicate how this difference might play out in IA, PA, MI, OH, NM, CO, NV, NH, and VA.
Why is McCain/Palin winning right now? I think the answer is because they have the edge on "we hate Republican (and governmental) corruption more than you do." That's what this election is all about. If Obama can turn the tide in that department, he can still win this thing handily.
Reminders: Obama on O'Reilly the next 3 nights, and Palin to talk to Charlie Gibson later this week (date has not been released?)
Are these pre-CHAD stats or should we expect some fudging later on?
Interesting breakdown of historical debate results and overall election outcome for sure. I can't wait for the debates, that's when it gets good.
1. I agree that polls at this stage should not be taken as gospel.
2. However,based on history the fact that the economy is not doing well would suggest a landslide victory for the party not in office. The GOP has to take the fact that they are not getting crushed right now as a positive sign.
3. I think Palin is directly responsible for this latest rise for McCain. She has been able to get the conservative base out. In the 2006 elections which the dems won, the republican base stayed home.
4. I think that McCain needs to continue to campaign on core conservative values in order to keep the base energized. If he starts to pass the olive branch, he would do so at his own peril.
5. It is still a little too early to tell if Palin is the real deal or not. However, based on her appearance at the GOP convention, she doesnt look like someone who can be bullied around. Biden had better be very careful at the vp debates.
6. But again, why hasnt Obama been able to close the deal? Are people just enthused at Palin/McCain or are they apprehensive about Obama?
Note to Obama: trying to cast this as Bush's third term isn't working. I don't know what Obama should do, but that isn't meaningful to anyone but his most diehard loyalists. Obama is saying that McCain voted with Bush "90% of the time," but what that doesn't reveal is that many Senate votes are unanimous or nearly so (stuff like, a resolution to honor the Olympians, or the retiring Senate clerk, etc.). Obama himself has probably voted with Bush 70% of the time, or more. I'm hoping someone will do the math on that one.
How often has Obama voted with Ted Kennedy? Obama was voted the most liberal Senator. Where has he crossed over to help bring this country together?
Do you want more of Ted Kennedy's socialist ideas implemented? If yes, then vote for Obama.
No one said McCain had a monopoly, just a significant advantage- at least in perception, if not, in fact.
Brian I never said that we should not vote for old white people - please don't put words in my mouth. My point was that McCain is like every politician we've ever had, especially in recent memory. Him being old and white is just another similarity he shares with the current administration.
I also strongly disagree that McCain has a "significant advantage" of the notion of change. Almost nothing he has proposed has been a significant change (let's not forget he has avoided almost any actual specifics on what he will do if he wins).
Obama's campaign was the one that first and best promoted change. Once he started winning votes, the other candidates jumped on the change bandwagon.
Obama should have at least a 15-20 point lead right now. If you look at historical data, the party in charge when the economy is not doing well, gets crushed.
Obama had a lead and is watching it slip away to nothing. Why is that? Why cant he capitalize on all the media attention he is receiving? The GOP for all intents and purposes was dead after 2006. Every pundant would have told you 3 months ago that Obama wins big in a landslide. Why isnt that happening?
Is it because of hidden racism? Is it because the GOP is now rejuvenated? Or is it because Obama keeps saying the same things over and over and over again.
I think it is because the American people have heard enough about the general concept of "Change" now they want to know "How we will change". I dont think Obama has delivered that message as of yet.
I dont value polls that much as I stated earlier. But I think they can give you a sense of what is going on.
Obama is a political strategist's wet dream:
1. He is a rock star
2. He has raised hundres of millions of dollars
3. He gets tons of free media exposure (ie. the Oprah show)
4.The economy is down and he is in the oppossing party.
5. He is young and good looking.
6. His opponent is a long time Washington insider and old.
7. More people voted in the democratic primaries than in the republican.
8. His opponent kept his word and accepted public campaign dollars and is thus limited to that amount. Obama has a huge cash advantage.
I mean based on all of the above points, Obama isnt getting it done. Now the question is why not? Is there something wrong with him or his message? He definitely needs to do something to stop the leakage.
Regarding your support for Ted Kennedy, I just think that is one of those fundamental issues where we disagree. I cannot support an old rich guy who thinks he knows better than the average American and who runs from trouble.
McCain like every other politician we've ever had? Ask Rick Santorum what he thinks about that.
Obama's "change" motif was very effective in taking on Hillary. It weakened when he added Biden, and even more so when McCain's Maverick mentality became more emphasized (who he has been almost his entire Senate career). It's not jumping on the bandwagon. It is speaking of an actual strength he has possessed for some time.
But let me assume you are right. How can you explain McCain's lead in the polls? What in your view, is McCain doing well, or Obama failing to do? I'm all ears.
Brian, since you lumped all black people under the "will most likely vote for Obama because he's black" umbrella, I think you better than anyone would see the connection between old white guys and Washington.
I also do not agree that Obama is not "getting it done." I think he's doing a remarkable job.
Rick, you listed a ton of reasons that Obama stands a fighting chance, and I agree with them all.
Polls aside, this election will come down to a very small group of people. Long-time democrats will probably vote for Obama, and long-time Republicans will probably vote for McCain. Independents will be the factor, but I think more specifically, independents in swing states are really the group that will decide this election. Ohio, Florida, Michigan - these are states that matter.
So with that respect, Rick and my votes are irrelevant. But Brian, you're in a good position. Maybe I should consider moving to another state...
What exactly does "...Likely Voters" mean?
Although McCain is leading in National Polls, Obama is still ahead in the electoral college. McCain is going to have to win some tough swing states. I think he will win Florida but Ohio, Michigan, and Colorado could easily go Obama.
people who aren't on caging lists ;-)
I also agree that these comments are very very very very...
As for the country, I think we're pretty much 50/50 red/blue, conservative/liberal as evidenced by the Gore/Bush election fiasco. I think that's the only explanation of why our country is in a war hated by many and our economy is going in the toilet and still the party in power is not way behind in the polls.
I would like to hear from the women on this site that support McCain. How can you support a man who does not believe in equal pay for women? How do you justify your vote?
September 26, 2008: Presidential debate with domestic policy focus, University of Mississippi, Oxford, MS
October 2, 2008: Vice Presidential debate, Washington University, St. Louis, MO
October 7, 2008: Presidential debate in a town hall format, Belmont University, Nashville, TN
October 15, 2008:Presidential debate with foreign policy focus, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY
McCain does not support equal pay for women? News to me.
I would like more information on his tax plans. The only reference I found regarding taxes showed me that I personally would be better off under McCain
Here is a quick review of some of the misconceptions about the different tax plans. What is interesting is that as you scroll down you can see a chart put together by the Tax Policy Center. One can then determine for yourself under whose plan you will be better off.
http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/taxes.asp
"Likely voters" are a "scientific" estimation of those people who will actually go to the polls. Lots of people have opinions, but it's sad how few will actually get off work, skip the restaurant, get up 20 minutes earlier, what have you- and ACTUALLY vote. It has proven more accurate than registered voting polls. they ask questions like, "Did you vote 4 years ago?" They might even ask if you've voted in "off-year" elections. That seems like a helpful barometer to me, though still a tad imprecise.
Dave- you know I genuinely like you, and this is not a hostile conversation for me. It's fun more than anything, and maybe one day, one of us will convince the other of something politically :) Last word: you have grossly mis-stated my position on black voters, as I explained in a previous blog. I'm not your stereotypical Republican leaner.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TiQCJXpbKg
(something all of us will enjoy)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAQDGnwBNa8
Obama 47%, McCain 46%
This is a must have for Obama.
This is an average of polls that shows all of the major ones and is updated every few days. I have no idea how these things can be accurate. How many of you are on the do not call list? I don't even have a home phone, so I haven't been polled in years.
obama is an appeaser, while MCCain is a Pro Actor and will not hesitate to protect our country. All of young marrieds with children should think that if it comes to it, your husband may have to be drafted to protected to protect this country. I know alot of you come from the post Vietnam Era, but the draft is not beyond reality. Also, I know that there are many former draft dodgers on this board, but just think your children will probably get a chance to serve.
How do you "know" there are draft dodgers on this board? Did they confess to you?
i think we agree for once...McCain is like every other politician and is a Professional Actor...He should star in his own movies...
Politicians are exempt from the do not call list. Funny how they snuck that in there.
Beanotron 4000-
If there are any, which I don't think there are, then they just have another reason to vote for Obama. Keeping us out of conflict is what keeps the draft away. If you tell someone that they're an asshole and a terrorist 10 times a day for years, would you expect a fight? You should, because you would deserve it. Get it? What happened to the republicans that just wanted to make money and stay out of everybody's business?
Hey, I agree with your comment "What happened to the republicans that just wanted to make money and stay out of everybody's business?"
If you find any politician who thinks that way let me know.
O'Reilly was a trainwreck last night. He kept interrupting Obama, being sarcastic with his criticisms (some of which were false), and Obama had to fight him just to finish explaining his points. I am one of those who think Bill is normally a no spin guy, but not last night. He crossed the line between a tough interview and being downright annoying. And then he went on to brag about how he "let Obama talk," and how "I only had 30 minutes to cram it all in." Kudos to Obama for not going all Bill Clinton on him (think the Chris Wallace interview), he was very patient.
Tonight, O'Reilly grills him on Rev. Wright, Tony Rezko, and William Ayers. He promises it will be even more lively.