Recent Blogs
Blog Archive
Blog Archive
Tuesday, October 7th, 2008
The Night the Election was Decided
...is tonight.
Obama clearly has a significant lead of about 7 points nationally. All the swing states are in his corner now, or, within the margin of error. McCain has looked like an out of touch old guy for the past 2 weeks, unable to convincingly sound like a leader on economic issues. Without trying to let my preference influence this statement, I really think the past 2 weeks have been more about McCain 's weakness than Obama's strength.
But the race is not done. A lot can change in a week's time- Bush led Gore by 11 points as late as October 26, 2000.
Tonight, though, the election takes it up a notch. John McCain duels Barack Obama in the steel cage, er, town hall. This is an opportunity for John McCain to strike back, or, go down in flames once and for all. If the same old McCain shows up, I don't see any way for the campaign to come back.
Frankly, what would be the most effective message for either candidate would be a very firm and confident, "We're going to get through this! (financial crisis)" If either candidate could pull that off, they're going to get lots of new support. To date, though, both candidates have come off saying, "Here's what I would do to help," but the assurance has been lacking. [For what it's worth, I really do believe our country is going to get through this relatively fine and a year from now the economy will be rebounding.]
Side note: I am sick of all the ugly politics. Now there is a story linking McCain loosely to Iran-Contra! No doubt, some of these things are relevant to the character of a person, but it sure is wearying, especially when the country is in so much turmoil.
The Night the Election was Decided
...is tonight.
Obama clearly has a significant lead of about 7 points nationally. All the swing states are in his corner now, or, within the margin of error. McCain has looked like an out of touch old guy for the past 2 weeks, unable to convincingly sound like a leader on economic issues. Without trying to let my preference influence this statement, I really think the past 2 weeks have been more about McCain 's weakness than Obama's strength.
But the race is not done. A lot can change in a week's time- Bush led Gore by 11 points as late as October 26, 2000.
Tonight, though, the election takes it up a notch. John McCain duels Barack Obama in the steel cage, er, town hall. This is an opportunity for John McCain to strike back, or, go down in flames once and for all. If the same old McCain shows up, I don't see any way for the campaign to come back.
Frankly, what would be the most effective message for either candidate would be a very firm and confident, "We're going to get through this! (financial crisis)" If either candidate could pull that off, they're going to get lots of new support. To date, though, both candidates have come off saying, "Here's what I would do to help," but the assurance has been lacking. [For what it's worth, I really do believe our country is going to get through this relatively fine and a year from now the economy will be rebounding.]
Side note: I am sick of all the ugly politics. Now there is a story linking McCain loosely to Iran-Contra! No doubt, some of these things are relevant to the character of a person, but it sure is wearying, especially when the country is in so much turmoil.
Tonight could be make it, break it, but I think only if McCain fails horribly, which isn't likely. I don't think he'll do well, but I don't think he'll seem like a moron either. He needs to dig deep and find the old John McCain that isn't afraid to answer direct questions and talk directly to the American people without condescension or phoniness. If he can't do that, I will expect Obama's lead to increase steadily, but a lot can happen in a month. They both have to step it up. If Obama can come away looking like the leader who is cool under pressure and surrounds himself with brilliant people with realistic views for the future then I think he's a lock.
Looking forward to tonight and I think now that we got the VP debate out of the way the next two debates are what its going to come down to for majority of the undecided voters.
Denny- it has been quiet- in a weird turn of events, I think the economic news is even overshadowing the Presidential race.
Matt- Obama is looking at about 350 EV right now. McCain can't afford a tie or to just look decent. He needs a major momentum shift. This is one of his last chances to get it. I think it is that critical to his chances of winning.
Obama got some street cred in debate #1 by just demonstrating that he "belonged there," which he accomplished. But I think the onus on him tonight is different, it's not just to show that he belongs there, but that he will truly be a great leader. Could he pull it off? Maybe. But it is going to depend on his staff recognizing this need and coaching him in that direction. If Obama disappoints on this new question, you could see a touch of his support soften over the next week. In other words: Mr. Obama, don't get comfortable, yet.
Tonight should be interesting. I'm glad they're changing the format to shake thing s up a bit.
Anybody that proposes being an "Appeaser" in Foreign Policy and a "Give Away Artist in Domestic Policy" doesn't fit my idea of an American President. He seems to be appealing to the ignorant and loafing classes, well my philosophy is get out and try to find something you can, even if is nothing but sweep streets. The past record of the types of people he is appealing to is the same class that put a burden on the Health and Welfare Systems in this country.
Bean- you're right, Obama has shown terrible judgment in his associations. But McCain isn't giving people much to bite on.
Obama leading Gallup today now, 51-42.
What is your continued concern/jealousy about Obama's association with Oprah? She's a talk show host. She has a strong following, but so did Michael Jordan. I didn't start drinking Sprite just because he did. And just b/c I mention Jordan does give you the honor to now start talking about UNC b/c that's how you link every blog on this site.
Ditto to Meg's distaste for all the mudslinging... from both sides.
If he were white, would you still use the word "tainted"?
In watching the crowd I noticed that people would actually respond to Obama with some body language and even an occasional smile or nod. Not so much with the old man. It's subtle, but I wonder how many other people noticed it, or what effect it had on the crowd?
"AAAAAAAAAAANNNNNNNNNNNNDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD"
:*)
sandy- exactly. Which also explains why McCain lost points with some of the snippy stuff later in the debate (he was getting too overconfident).
Brian this wa a nice blog-don't think "the debate" had much substance to it except Obama's response to the right or responsibility question about insurance. I think he gave a very good response to that one.